Labor market recession over?

SALEM - The Columbiana-Mahoning and Trumbull county area registered 783 new unemployment claims for the fourth week in July, according to Cleveland economic analyst George Zeller.

"In a clearly positive development, the Toledo and Youngstown-Warren metro areas both currently have new claims for unemployment below a 'job growth' level, using both 1999 and 2000 as reference years for 'job growth,'" he said, adding that none of Ohio's other urban areas registered such good news this week.

There were 147 new claims in Columbiana County, a decrease of 37.9 percent from the same period a year ago; 332 new claims in Mahoning County, a decrease of 28.5 percent from the same period last year; and 304 new claims in Trumbull County, a 38.2 percent drop from the same period in 2009.

Zeller, a 1967 Salem High School graduate, said the Youngstown-Warren metro area currently has the sixth highest elevated level of new unemployment claims among all Ohio seven urban areas.

During January, it appeared that the Youngstown-Warren might be finally approaching a "job growth" reading in the new unemployment claims, he said.

But Zeller cautioned that job deterioration during all of February, March, April, May, and June weeks returned Youngstown-Warren to an elevated level of new claims that was inconsistent with current employment growth.

During the fourth week of July new unemployment claims in the Mahoning Valley measured another end to local job destruction, Zeller noted, "Those metro Youngstown new unemployment claims are now 11 percent lower than the 1999 reference year for job growth and are now 9 percent below 2000 'job growth' levels.

"This week's return to an end of job destruction in the Mahoning Valley is very good news - and that good news was concentrated this week in Trumbull County, but the data is slightly less favorable in Columbiana and Mahoning Counties."

Zeller said a lot of what is happening in Trumbull County can be attributed to the GM Lordstown complex.

Statewide, Zeller said the data for the first four weeks of July indicated a decline of 36.5 percent relative to the first four weeks of July 2009.

"This reduction and reversal in the rate of increase in new unemployment claims is highly welcome news," he said, adding, "Ohio new unemployment claims were substantially lower" during the fourth quarter of 2009 than they were during the fourth quarter of 2008.

"That substantial decline accelerated during the first three quarters of 2010."

While the latest news shows improvement, Zeller curbed his optimism saying, "But, even the sharply lowered level of new unemployment claims relative to last year during the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first three quarters of 2010 left Ohio's number of new unemployment claims at a level that is far too high to measure job growth in Ohio.

"Substantial additional reductions in layoffs will be necessary in future weeks if definitive evidence is to emerge that the 2000s recession is finally ending in Ohio's labor market."

Larry Shields can be reached at lshields@salemnews.net