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Economist says Ohio job numbers still negative

SALEM – Cleveland Economic Researcher George Zeller said that while Ohio had an “apparently encouraging” new streak of five consecutive weeks of job growth levels of new unemployment claims that were not elevated, that proved to be a false positive reading.

Zeller, a 1967 Salem High School graduate, said it was caused by the annual seasonal distortion of retooling in the automobile industry but the latest numbers are no longer subject to the customary (August) model changeover layoffs. Consequently, the data improved very slightly but still wound up being barely unfavorable in the job destruction elevated range.

Ohio’s 6,042 new unemployment claims were 0.4 percent higher than the 6,019 new unemployment claims that Ohio had during the third week of September 1999.

That was the last year Ohio had unambiguous job growth for the entire year.

Thus, the weekly totals are currently barely in the “job destruction” range of new claims that is currently elevated above normal levels. This has occurred for six consecutive weeks.

Zeller uses the benchmark year of 2000. That is because his reports are designed to measure the point at which Ohio’s lengthy 2000s recessionary labor market contraction will conclude as a result of the end of job destruction.

He tracks employment losses because it is directly associated with payroll earnings losses and also causes declines in other measures of the business cycle, notably revenues generated by tax streams at various levels of government.

The income tax and the sales tax are particularly subject to trends in the business cycle.

Therefore a determination economic indicators: job and earnings trends that update the point at which the impact of the 2000s recession finally disappears in Ohio’s labor market is an extremely important issue, he said.

Zeller pointed out the national data improved slightly for the same period and remains “very positive.” Thus, the updated data on new unemployment claims are favorable nationally but with Ohio results noticeably weaker.

One favorable development during the week was the number of new unemployment claims decreased between 2013 and 2014 in all seven counties within the Cleveland-Akron-Lorain-Elyria Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area.

But, Zeller cautioned, within that region, each of those counties now have elevated “job destruction” levels of new claims this week in excess of their 1999 levels.

That resulted in five of the seven large metro regions having elevated “job destruction” levels in current new unemployment claims, with only Youngstown-Warren and Canton in the not elevated “job growth” range.

Zeller noted, Columbus retained its unwanted position with the highest elevated level of new unemployment claims among the regions. Metro Cincinnati kept the second highest elevated level of new unemployment. The Cleveland-Akron-Lorain-Elyria region is the third highest elevated level of new claims.

Given the still slightly unfavorable data, five of Ohio’s seven largest urban regions have levels of new unemployment claims that are currently elevated, thus indicating local “job destruction.”

He noted that Youngstown-Warrens’ current numbers are the best among Ohio’s urban regions, with Canton second best this week. Youngstown-Warren has now experienced “job growth” levels of new unemployment claims that are not elevated for 126 of the past 163 weeks.

lshields@salemnews.net

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