BELOIT — The West Branch Board of Education was presented with the district’s five-year forecast in its meeting Thursday. 

In the past, school districts presented the second half of their annual five-year financial forecasts in May. However, following the approval of new legislation last year, that presentation must now be made in February. Treasurer Adam Fisher said that while the forecast is compiled as accurately as possible, there are many factors which impact public school funding, and that the forecast is updated every six months to account for these changing variables. 

The forecast projects a mixed future for the district’s end of year balance, with fiscal year 2026 anticipated to see a slight increase from 2025’s final balance of $5,910,039 to a projected carryover of $6,332,003. In the next few years, the balance is expected to fluctuate both up and down with projected final balances of $6,567,856 in 2027, $6,465,305 in 2028, $5,481,933 in 2029, and $4,502,305 in 2030.  

The largest portion of the district’s revenue continues to come from state grants and aid at 55%, followed by local taxes, which includes both real estate and public utility income tax, at 33%, while staff salaries and benefits continue to represent the majority of its expenses at 53.8% and 21.28%, respectively. 

The forecast also reflects the expected funding cuts coming to school districts around the state following the passage of Ohio House Bill 186, with cuts to the district’s local revenue expected to result in more than $1 million in lost revenue by 2030. The current forecast projects the district to receive $6,392,649 in 2027, $264,732 less than the $6,657,381 that was projected in October. The same is true for fiscal years 2028, 2029, and 2030 with the forecast projecting $6,468,280, $6,642,293, and $6,939,945, respectively, decreases of $347,928, $332,455, and $327,699 from the $6,816,208, $6,974,748, and $7,267,633 projected in the October forecast. This represents a cumulative loss of $1,272,803 through 2030 compared to what was projected prior to House Bill 186. 

The forecast also addressed the potential funding impacts of the efforts to place a proposed constitutional amendment which would eliminate state property taxes on the ballot in November. 

According to the forecast, the sales tax currently in place in Mahoning County would be insufficient to make up for the revenue shortfall that abolishing property tax would create. Fisher said that to cover that income tax would have to rise to between 13% and 27%, and sales tax could rise as high as 20% across the state, which he noted would disproportionally impact lower-income residents. This shift in tax collection would also erode the autonomy of local government entities, centralizing control at the county and state levels, and could possibly result in the consolidation of school districts. 

The board voted unanimously to approve the forecast. 

The board of education will meet next at 6 p.m. on March 19.