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Predicting turnout for the Aug. 8 special election with a single state constitutional amendment is challenging, though it certainly will be low.
There hasn't been a statewide constitutional amendment on an August ballot in Ohio in 97 years.
Also, turnout was 7.9 percent last year for a special statewide primary in August for state legislative and state central committee seats. That occurred after the Ohio Supreme Court ruled General Assembly maps approved by the Ohio Redistricting Commission were unconstitutional.
Last year was a partisan primary in August. This election is open to all registered voters and has significant ramifications for the state.
If the proposal is approved, all future constitutional amendment ballot issues would need at least 60 percent support to pass rather than the current simple majority. Also, if passed, effective Jan. 1, 2024, proposed amendments would need signatures from at least 5 percent of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election from all of the state's 88 counties to qualify for the ballot rather than the current 44-county threshold.
Election experts in Ohio often look at the first day of early voting in the state to help gauge turnout.
There were more than 250 voters at the Mahoning County Board of Elections' early voting center on Tuesday, the first day of early voting. There were almost 300 in Trumbull County. Those are high numbers.
"This was heavy turnout for an election like this," said Tom McCabe, Mahoning County elections director and the county Republican Party chairman. "This was more than the first three weeks combined of early voting last year."
McCabe expects turnout for the August election to be around 20 to 25 percent.
"Both sides are very active," he said. "They're sending mailers and absentee applications. With the money and the focus, turnout should be good."
Stephanie Penrose, director of the Trumbull County Board of Elections, said if she was told a little over week ago that nearly 300 people would vote on the first day, "I'd have said you were crazy. Then all of a sudden, we saw signs and commercials, and we got busy with phone calls from people with questions. So the turnout was no longer a surprise to me."
Penrose said three weeks ago that turnout in Trumbull would be around 10 to 12 percent.
She's now raising that to 30 percent.
"I'm happy to be wrong in these instances with turnout when it's more than I expect," she said. "It's encouraging that we're not doing this for nothing."
There was a decline in turnout Wednesday and Thursday, but it was still decent in both counties.
There seems to be enthusiasm for this issue, particularly when you consider it's on an August ballot, which typically flies under the radar and the state Legislature voted in December to eliminate these elections except for very specific circumstances. A statewide constitutional amendment wasn't one of those circumstances, but the Ohio Supreme Court ruled June 16 the Aug. 8 election could proceed.
Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who backs the issue, told reporters right before early voting started that he wouldn't make a prediction on turnout, but he "wouldn't be surprised if it's similar to what we saw in last year's primary that was held in August."
Again, that was 7.9 percent.
Of course, all the predictions are low -- including Penrose's 30 percent -- when you consider that an overwhelming majority of registered voters won't cast ballots in this election.
David Betras, Mahoning County Board of Elections chairman, said: "When you aren't voting, you're voting. You're giving someone else your vote."
The Republican-controlled state Legislature decided to put the constitutional amendment on a special August ballot in an attempt to make it harder for voters to pass a proposed abortion rights amendment for the Nov. 7 ballot.
If that proposal ends up qualifying for the November ballot, it would need approval from at least 60 percent of voters, rather than a simple majority, if the August constitutional amendment is approved.
Boards of elections are reviewing signatures on petitions for that abortion rights amendment proposal as well as for an initiative statute to legalize recreational marijuana. Boards have until Thursday to verify all of the signatures, and many are putting in extra hours to meet that deadline.
David Skolnick is a political writer for the Youngstown Vindicator and Warren Tribune-Chronicle, sister Ogden newspapers with the Columbiana Country newspapers. He can be reached at: dskolnick@tribtoday.com